[Reprint]-Bing: world economic situation analysis and investment opportunities _nlp Hi you

Original address:-Bing: world economic situation analysis and investment opportunities author:-Bing article link http://money.sohu.com/20101016/n275807225.shtml Bank, 2010-16 October-27 October in Beijing "WAD wealth Expo", Sohu financial channel coverage by this activity, the following is a "currency war" author, the well-known financial experts-Bing highlights: -Bing: three years ago wrote a book called the "currency war", the word has now become the major media are very concerned about words, I think it's time for investment financing may also need a global perspective, to a large extent on the stock market boom, gold and silver increases, the price of oil is and the things relevant, accurate understanding of the matter, the world's future economic and financial impact of the investment may be helpful to everyone. I just came from Korea, Korea in a Summit, called the world knowledge forum, once a year, every year, the internationally renowned scholars and politicians, such as last year was the elder Bush, this is the former United Kingdom Prime Minister Blair and Mahathir, Malaysia's former Prime Minister. For international scholars, guru, including Neil Hobson, known as the Western top scholars, is their family history dedicated authors. There are last year's winner of the prize in economics, including the futurists Naisbitt, New York University's famous Dr. rupee, and Korea and Japan's senior officials. Next week at the G20 meeting will be held in Seoul, the Forum is to catch up, I RMB feel particularly obvious that almost all people are accused of RMB was underestimated, the appreciation of the Renminbi must first fight against on Neil and Krugman's team of confrontation, dollar credit in the fragile, in this case, if the interest rate market suddenly in a sharp rise, rise, yields will not result in serious injury. Krugman said there was no significant damage, no matter, especially in the second, the argument is very fierce, in meeting a round and round. Vladimir Hickson pointed out that the United States will be in loss to investors ' confidence, United States of more serious than Greece liabilities and bad. Krugman refuted this statement, said the market and there is no evidence that the dollar's confidence shaken, said that China does not sell United States national debt, even if it doesn't sell out, the United States will accept according to the order. Crevecoeur Sen said market has not changed before seem to be good, because the two men have some feelings before, Nexen says subprime mortgage crisis, it is the market appears to be very stable, but the market changes and market confidence, the US dollar on the confidence of the financial system will change over time, some incidents may stimulate the outbreak chain-reacting malignant, they both played by fierce. I'm down with Vladimir Nexen said that Krugman played worse because Krugman finally talk a bit stumbled, United States of monetary easing, what it means. If the United States so open printing bank note banknote, the appreciation of the renminbi is because their size is too large, the Chinese RMB who is its owner. The Conference formed a one-sided situation, all views have said the RMB is not good. Vladimir Hixson is the most modest attitude. On 13 October, I participated in a forum, and Ruby, to permit a question, Ruby, said the Chinese Government's core ideas very representative, the Chinese Government cannot enjoy preferential exchange rate of expansion of the export of benefits on the other hand count on the United States by foreign exchange purchase Government bonds do not suffer, not depreciate, no loss, say they cannot eat it. United States Economist says the Chinese Government not to buy United States national debt, commercial, buy lose no one forced, commercial behavior has nothing to do with us, said United States national debt will never breach, because we have enough banknote banknotes, printed it out, this is a representative of a member of the United States Economist's point of view. So said the appreciation of the RMB should significantly, my view is from 2006 to 2009 China holds a United States national debt, because the US dollar for six consecutive years of losses, caused the loss of up to five $ 100 billion, equivalent to 2007 and 2008, a year of financial income, equivalent to 2008 10% of GDP. Then I said United States precisely because this arrogant attitude and practices directly violates the interests of creditors, I cite an example, the United States is the largest living in the United States bonds, so many years and have never seen the debtor to the creditor so many conditions, not to punish, this case is a violation of the interests of creditors, if be early creditors of abandoned and market. What is the currency of the basic values, whether or not to do, how dare the monetary value of morality, no State can be any reason to destroy the monetary value of the field behind the debate, I think that is reflected in the United States generally, whether it be a politician, or economy, and I think reflects the widespread a very arrogant attitude, doesn't care what the other countries, it is necessary to do so. In particular it is interesting to note that China, as the United States largest creditor, the United States to make such a request, it is inconceivable that the United States is honesty, debt is a solemn commitment, if you take this attitude to dealing with creditors, how can imagine not only China, Japan and Korea, as well as many other people will look to the United States, how do you see the dollar, this is the US dollar long-term damage. Why do I have to mention this, this is the war of public opinion, is the exchange rate between the commanding heights, if the United States said that the Chinese currency manipulation, if all the bonds are bought, many countries considered that United States is justified, but we say that the United States this is accomplished through changes in monetary policy, is in arrears in disguise, is contrary to the ethical principles of currency. We think it is, Japan, Korea and Singapore this country, there are other countries that are favored by the depreciation of the dollar, will feel aggrieved. International arena sounds too weak China, this meeting please me a Chinese, 17 speaker, I want to deal with a lot of peopleThat will feel a lot of pressure. But on the appreciation of the Renminbi, next week will be the focus of worldwide attention. This is Korea's media, because I like Ruby, fought a battle, the next day's newspaper "war" raised the RMB exchange rate, this is me and Ruby's post-session at controversy and debate. From reason to speak of these people understand the problem, but why are they unwilling to recognize United States economic core of the problem, this is the point. At that time I mention why this concept will go from concept to reality, I was cited examples, Ann �� RAND is Greenspan's spiritual teacher, he said when labour with notes Exchange acceptance, the hope is that people around the principles based on moral, honest exchange debt commitments, without breach of contract, this is the true value of the underlying currency. What is the money that we earn money every day, each year looking for wealth, what is the money, what is the money, we'll ignore that currency is wealth of receipts, someone has created a wealth, issue a receipt, a person holding a receipt, to the Central Bank, or what agencies requirements fulfilled this wealth, is called the wealth of the discount. This is the currency of the underlying system, formerly gold, gold is a real treasure, gold, receipts, US dollar or British pound constitutes the wealth, 1971, the United States had the gold kicked out, replaced with pure debt, now get 1 dollar, means that the Federal Reserve said, can return me to my work, he is a person owes to the United States banking system notes, this is the currency most nature things. The value of money depends on borrows official word, if you borrow one word, you will be holding a currency devaluation. You can imagine our life would be the same, we said that China's economic development is very fast, decades of accumulated a great deal of wealth, do not forget our currency is also a depreciated, 06 to 08, China reserves if the dollar index adjustments later, China is in fact a huge gap between our current foreign exchange reserves with actual dollar index adjustments after the middle of the fall of 5 billion dollars. That is our loss of 5 thousand dollars of real purchasing power, this is not a small figure, if the United States and China suddenly rise 20%, we will lose the money, the 20% of China's assets, the assets the Central Bank, direct capital losses will reach 3.3 billion, equivalent to the said the 2008 10% of GDP, equivalent to the Bank's own capital of 140 times, if the left part of the assets shrink 20%, will match the right assets, why can't we just beat the currency war, United States launched the monetary easing, China will be a massive inflation. Like gold, oil prices, why would repeatedly breaking new high, if the flow of toxic assets, those assets are not the dollar going up it would be strange. I am in currency of the 30th anniversary of the war will come up with new concepts, financial high frontier, a country's currency from creation to final users, in the middle of all the circulation process, including a large number of financial networks, including clearing houses, including the financial security of the core, as long as it was in use, those places are the will of the State, require protection. The book, I also mentioned investment products that I recommended investment products and how to deal with the United States to launch currency war, Ruby, said to me that not only the second currency war, there will be first at 2343 round, round than round, we want to place in the international context, because everyone here a piece of money, stock or investment wealth or are subject to the direct impact of this thing. Not long ago lang said do not recommend that you buy gold, gold's price of $ 850 from 1980 to now have not caught up with inflation, he is using the $ 850, a point is the price of a day and now, is not a reasonable, it was because the Iran hostage crisis, the building of panics, there is a spike, statistics of this peak should be removed. From 1971, beginning 15 August, the dollar and gold the time proclaiming, up to now 1360, rose by 30 times that of the real estate from the 1971 United States real estate price 2.5 million, had the highest time to 07 years of 25 million, will now fall back to the 17 to 19 million. In 40 years, the United States did not exceed 10 times the real estate. In this sense, it has been said that China's real estate prices rise faster than the United States, I'll mention this problem. Lang said China's courtyard in liberation is four four two gold, two silver can buy a House, at that time, China has established a national system of statistics of the prices, then say a set of two golden quadrangle value 4 is what year, at the time of war, people fled for their lives too late, which also counter-productive and house prices, such statistics are not fully reflected. The mirage of United States currency market from 1901 to present changes in the situation, when the dollar and Gold hook when we see the shape of a wave is the case, then why is United States stock market is getting better and better, with an average annual rate of return of 12%, because a decoupling of the dollar and gold, the dollar like how India on how India, when the dollar is printed to the stock market seems to be filled, the dollar market in money, in fact is illusory wealth, the actual purchasing power in decline, the stock market is losing money. If we use gold X light a phase, you can see that the United States stock market ups and downs of three large, that is the price of gold is actually a devotion, as will soon know that the market is changing, this is a bull market for stocks in 1929, it was in 1960 IT foam, each time after the city back to its prototype, and consolidation for 20 years, there is no recovery. We are in the fall cycle, how many years you want to consolidation, if you can draw on the experience of history, I think it is more than 10 years. Gold to pricing, real estate prices, this is the United Kingdom more than 100 years of real estate prices, this is the United States for over 100 years of real estate price, if the gold price, 120 years ago, in the United States to buy a House, 110 gold, a gold coin an ounce, real estate has risen, far from notes of rose so much. Beijing three ring House this year, last year, this is the case, the structure has not changed, the old year withWhat up from 1 million to 2 million, really appreciate it. The oil also is one of these things has not changed, real change is the currency in circulation, such circumstances, the feeling of wealth illusion occurs, causing a feeling of unreality, think of my house in appreciation, is a devaluation of the currency purchase. If we use gold price of oil, dollar, as the price of gold fluctuates very badly, so we use gold price of oil, from 2001 to the present oil price does not change, are essentially stable in 0.08 ounces purchase price of a barrel of oil. Use this picture you can see more clearly, from 1965 until now basically revolves around the central axis in volatility, what good money, what quality currency, gold in the past five years reflects the excellent quality, with its various commodity price, a high level of stability, we use the dollar abolish, absolutely currency debt, easing, so come have a money today and tomorrow in a money is one thing, this causes us no matter how much money, the last still can't retire, not old. I am also a friend of mine said, listen to me talk back quite a bit, a family of three people, one year 60 million Yuan, including travel, buy a car all together, if you retire, how much money you want to be the purchasing power of 60 million, and later he said requires three billion, when he retired, a year to earn three million is equivalent to 60 million purchasing power today. If everyone on this issue is missing a very deep understanding, now save money, if you do not pay attention to financial management, that is an absolute loss a day deficit, inflation, I think it is a theft of the game, at home and keep a suitcase of money, the thief to steal money to your House, climbing over the wall hop farmers money stolen through monetary effect of evaporation of theft not theft safe is to take your money every day. This is a problem in the monetary system, without the ability to change the currency system, at a minimum, you should understand how to do to protect our wealth, this is the reason why we want to participate in the financing, to study financial management, research is the problem, how to stand on the side of the rules of the game, but don't stop there. If judged by the gold stock index, the truth is the same, now the stock index followed in 1993, the middle two great bull market, but the evaluation with gold, now with 93 years of purchasing power is the same, that is when the Shanghai stock market as a stock, buy gold, 1993 to buy stock, now can buy much stock. The root causes of the global financial crisis, is what best reflect the economic situation, I think it's a map to the most accurate overview of the economic situation, now is a mountain of debt, the Government Hercules on drive GDP to push the United States approach is the wrong way. Originally, the core of the financial crisis is the excessive debts, liabilities, and borrow more money to address the crisis, this can only make debt drag length longer, when the Government finally completely used up their physical strength, or will his own overwhelming, the so-called debt decline. The Government can solve, even if the dollar, the euro in the market have an invisible line that is not an unlimited degree of overdrafts, when the market reaches a certain limit will abandon you. The root causes of the financial crisis is the debt crisis of the breach, because the real estate product mass is in debt, when these assets slump, a large number of non-compliance leads to atrophy of the Bank's funds, the Bank is the full source of the community to create credit, no credit, there would be no economic, credit in the economy, when these institutions affected by problems, start tightening credit, the whole country would have a problem, we at Alan Greenspan has said that the 2008 financial crisis is most severe since 1929. This is the United States in total liabilities and the ratio between the economy, 1929 United States national total liabilities, I use total liabilities, many economics home public debt, you should put all the liabilities plus together to GDP ratio is reasonable, 1929 combined is 300% GDP, the current crisis was a 375% in 1929 to later 80 years does not appear, simply put, if a country is better than doing a family, a month income is limited and liabilities growth, far exceeding the income growth, more and more debt will last until the debt to a certain extent, monthly repayment of the money more than income, it must be a breach of contract. A family is such that a country is such that a reasonable, the most basic reason is very simple. Ordinary people can understand and live the truth, many people do not see the problem. United States in such a liability case complete recovery is not possible, no matter how many policies, the need to increase the debt behind or, after the crisis of 1929, the United States spent 20 years built a lever, the crisis would not adopt solutions leverage the financial crisis, high economic growth back to the old good times is absolutely impossible. Why is Ruby, Vladimir Hickson who said that the second round must be the last round, the first three or four wheels, and straightforward to borrow more money to solve the problem. This is the 2008 into the financial crisis of the figure, the total United States 06, private government debts 48 trillion, two years after becoming 57 trillion, United States of GDP increased from 13 trillion to 14.2 trillion, two-year period, the debt of the United States has increased by 9 trillion, but he's GDP increased 1.1 trillion, in other words, the total amount of debt to increase the United States is the increase in GDP. Such economies, this model of development, we think will continue, the red line represents the total debt is growing, the blue line represents the national income growth, GDP. From 57 years now this thread has not declined, the role of Lee rolling line increasingly steep, assuming that the United States does not alter this system, we extend from 2008 to 2018, the red line will break the topic, you can imagine the United States in addition to the depreciation of the currency has no second road. If the United States is 6%, to $ 586 million, 40 years after the United States debt worth spending will reach 35 trillion, this system is also able to maintain it. For United States assets and liabilities, face serious problemsThe growth is too fast, liabilities, capital growth is insufficient, the core is to repudiate arrears, to the vast number of investors, a kind of intuitive feeling it, do not believe that the United States Government talking about, because no matter how it is said that the obligations can only be resolved by printing money, just be sure to invest in precious metals on a large scale, this is not out of the Government of India, along with the devaluation of the dollar, the precious metals can only getting higher and higher, I think game play to the last is the United States national debt, will be the biggest problem. 2012 to 2014 United States will face very insurmountable problems, 2008 accumulated huge debt is deferred until 2014, the devaluation of the dollar will substantially, or the value of gold will rise to the very amazing price. This point in time, 2012, 2014, if you see 3000 dollars an ounce of gold will not be surprised, this is the huge size of the funds, it is only through such a policy we can solve the problem. In addition a more serious problem is the United States population aging term of, this is the United States population, birth intervals, this section is the baby boom, the United States constitutes half of the labour market in the United States, who was born in 1961 in high point, United States Department of labor on the statistics, any United States person, from 20 to 80 years old, when the consumer is always exuberant 48 years old, and 20-year-old has just graduated from a lack of money, the 48-year-old child, and also money, over 48 years later, the expected decline in income, the stomach is not good, various consumption will decline. If we take into account these two figures together, we will be United States economic cycles and the population consuming United States stock market change interval, is the red line represents the United States population consume cycles of consumption, the yellow line represents the United States, the Dow Jones index changes. Why did the stock market, stock prices will, because the company performance, the performance of the company is the consumer, the consumer is derived from community consolidated buying power. United States in 1960 to 82 years there is a consumer of aging, born 1961, to the 1982 entered the great looking for work, love, mass consumption, this guys is to borrow a money can take two money master, has resulted in a huge consumption upsurge promoted the United States has 28 years of development, China's reform and opening-up of 28 years and why we achieved great success, by promoting the consumption. From 1961 to 2008, 48 years later, this generation of consumption peak into the natural ageing period, consumption has declined, we in the red line of inflection points, back because the decline in population, consumption cycle will be the year 2024, have a 14-year consumption decline of cycle, the cycle of the stock market in the United States may be rising, but the actual growth rate of return on investment is declining. Due to time constraints, and finally to recommend a real investment opportunities is an investment in silver, many people do not have a lot of silver, 2008 September 18, is Lehman bankruptcy of the third day, the United States said on TV United States almost collapse of the financial system, the Fed monitor market, found that up to 5500 million of funding was "electronic run on" If you do not freeze the account monetary funds will run on a light, 24 hours to appear in the global economy. If the market money was taken out, each home to procurement of goods, people used merchandise on the market, if not the market will not be able to carry out transactions, bank card may take out money, trade will terminate, all of the financial system as long as electronic payment systems are a problem, that is why within 24 hours of the onset of paralysis on the global economy. This is the number of commodities that curve, gold prices in the day, from $ 750 to $ 850 to $ silver more, day rose 22%, for a moment I'll tell why, other commodities not too many changes in the capital markets the most change is gold and silver, especially silver, rose 22%, almost without precedent, and many do silver investment of people don't understand it, give me a call and ask why. We now look at it the other way round, the market appeared dollar institutional crisis, it is not a grab iron grab bronze, Rob is gold and silver from the bones, the majority of investors still take gold and silver as a genuine alternative to the dollar, this is a problem in itself. No matter how economists, panic, when that is marketplace behavior. Why to invest in silver, in the 21st century silver demand will be explosive growth in solar technology, new energy, green technology, solar energy technology all conductive technologies, mirrors, condenser are plated silver. New battery will adopt aluminum silver battery, the battery will have a significant environmental pollution. United States houses are wooden houses, wooden housing has a large number of parasites that can cause United States silver manufacture preservatives, behind each chip must use silver, operations in the middle of the desert must use plated silver ion fashion because can protect the wound without interference, medical aspects of cross-infection in the United States is a major problem. So said medical systems all sheets masks are used, gold now is 1: 16, now is 1: 60, now only 3 million tons of gold, gold stocks rise 15 million tons, only 3 million tons of silver, gold and silver is now only one-fifth of the stock, industrial uses, but in the explosive growth of the growth from 1: 1: 16 distortion to 60. This is a United States investors on silver investment demand curve, if something is in the quantitative monetary easing will under the investment opportunities, I recommend to everyone solemnly of silver, not only in monetary easing provide opportunities, but may be you've experienced the greatest opportunity. Thank you.